The next 10 minutes saw a strengthening of the Yen, and a weakening of the ES. The short trend trade is successful. The second short trend trade is unsuccessful. Again the Yen has made a low, and come off the lows. Additionally, this was a high risk trade because of the red color bar into intermediate resistance.

 

The next significant move takes place from 1315 hours to 1430 hours, and the S&P moves about 39 points higher. During this period, two short trend trades and 2 short counter trend trades failed. Only 1 countertrend long trade failed. The bars leading into the 1450 bars have all been strong up bars. This time period was filled with color bars, indicating illiquidity volatility was still present and not all market participants were present.

Here is the 5 minute Yen carry trade chart for that same period. By 1350 hours the yen has strengthened almost 1 big number and by 1450 it is up over 1.5 big numbers from the low.

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